Live eFG%: poor shooting or poor possessions?

A low score alone does not imply an upcoming OVER. It matters whether the teams are creating enough possessions and which shots they are missing. eFG% adjusts ordinary FG% for the extra value of three-pointers and better describes shooting efficiency.

Signs of a shooting recovery

If there are many possessions, few turnovers, open three-pointers and trips to the free-throw line, low eFG% may be temporary. The team's history shows how often shooting returned to normal after a similar start.

When UNDER remains well supported

Low eFG% is not evidence for OVER when possessions are long, shots are forced, field-goal attempts are scarce and offensive rebounds are missing. In that situation, the live projection should be lower even if the season's average total is high.

What the model checks

• Both teams' eFG%
• Field-goal attempts per minute
• TOV%, offensive rebounds and free-throw rate
• The quality of live statistics

Analysis describes probability and risk; it does not guarantee outcomes. This material is intended for readers aged 21+.