Offensive rebounds and second chances in totals

A miss only ends the possession after a defensive rebound. A team with a high offensive rebound share creates extra shots and fouls, and disrupts the defence. Low FG% can therefore coexist with substantial scoring potential.

Extra opportunities

An offensive rebound does not always start a new possession in the statistical definition, but it extends the attack and adds attempts. For a live projection, its relationship with field-goal attempts and free throws matters more than an isolated raw count.

The rebounding matchup

Season-long ORB% is adjusted for the particular opponent's ability to finish defensive possessions with rebounds. If both teams are weak on the defensive glass, second chances may support OVER even at an average pace.

What the model checks

• The team's ORB%
• The opponent's DRB%
• Second-chance points
• Fouls following repeated attacks

Analysis describes probability and risk; it does not guarantee outcomes. This material is intended for readers aged 21+.