PLAY, LEAN and PASS: reading a signal card

A SUPER EDGE card does not hide uncertainty behind one percentage. The verdict describes agreement between evidence sources, strength describes the supporting evidence, and risk describes conditions that could invalidate the scenario.

PLAY and LEAN

PLAY appears when live evidence, the exact historical scenario and the margin against the line agree. LEAN means there is support for a direction, but one important source is weak or contradictory. An attractive rating is not a reason to increase the stake.

PASS protects the record

PASS is used when the market has absorbed the edge, data is incomplete or scenarios contradict one another. Informational observations may still be recorded, but a paid signal should not be manufactured simply to generate a message.

What the model checks

• The recorded line
• Supporting reasons
• Conflicts and risk
• How long the signal remains relevant

Analysis describes probability and risk; it does not guarantee outcomes. This material is intended for readers aged 21+.