Quarter dependence: why the four periods are connected

A quarter total cannot be assessed as an isolated coin toss. Rotations, fouls, the score and the pace of one period affect the next. SUPER EDGE therefore compares the game so far with historical matches in which a team reached a similar state.

What defines a scenario

A scenario describes conditions before the period being projected: the previous quarter's result, its combined total, the team's lead, pace and shot quality. For example, 'after a Q1 total below 38 and a deficit of 6+, the team accelerated in Q2' carries more context than a simple Q2 average.

Recovery and slowdown

Three periods of 18 points may be followed by a recovery, but only if the corresponding historical sample supports it. Similarly, after 30+ points, the model checks whether a team regularly slowed down as shooting returned towards normal or rotations changed.

What the model checks

• The same quarter length and competition
• Enough relevant historical occurrences
• The live projection does not contradict the scenario
• Overlapping evidence groups are not counted twice

Analysis describes probability and risk; it does not guarantee outcomes. This material is intended for readers aged 21+.